Trends - the inside story

By Claire Adler

Should we really be that bothered about current trends? How do you define a trend? Where do trends start? Shouldn't the best jewellery designers be more concerned with pioneering trends than with copying them? How much do leading jewellery buyers base their commercial decisions on the latest trends? These are some of the questions that have triggered this article – the first in a new column in J-dex magazine, dedicated purely to jewellery trends. Ultimately, trends are about business opportunities. Undeniably, they therefore affect us all – albeit in different ways. This month, we look at the origins of trends and the task of predicting future trends. We also highlight some of the season's key influences.

Trends are about the broader picture. They are about the big ideas, but they also have practical implications. They give us a key to understanding the industry direction as a whole. But where do they start?

Trends can originate anywhere, sometimes in the most unexpected places. Instinctively, we might think of red carpet celebrity appearances and product placements in films having a powerful impact in sparking off trends. Indeed they do. For example, 2006 will see the release of the film Basic Instinct 2.

Leading lady Sharon Stone, asked Chopard to make her a selection of thumb rings for her character to wear. She wears a Chopard Ice Cube ring in white gold and diamonds, as well as a ring set with diamonds and a heart-shaped pink diamond in the centre. Thumb rings are not in the mainstream at all right now, but it will be very interesting to watch whether this is something which catches on.

Celebrities certainly wield enormous power in their ability to spurn a trend from a niche in the market and transform it into a widespread fashion epidemic – even if it is short-lived. As Rob Anderson, chief executive of the Signet Group (owners of H Samuel, Ernest Jones and Leslie Davis) told me recently: “Jacob and Co was an unknown brand until David Beckham starting wearing it. Soon, a trend for colourful, bling watches was created at all market levels. Similarly, a low price lookalike of Sarah Jessica Parker's diamond horse shoe pendant was in stores within two months and lasted for four to six months.”

Often though, trends are manifestations of what's going on at a deeper level in culture and society – sometimes at its extremes and in places you'd least expect. Trends often begin at the fringes of society or in lower socioeconomic groups. Just take the gypsy trend or the saggy jeans look – the latter originated from people having their belts taken away in jail.

If something is compelling enough, it will work its way through to the mainstream, says Alf Tong, a trend analyst at The Future Laboratory. He cites tattoos and body piercings as something which used to be associated only with people who had been through the armed forces, prison or the navy, but which more recently have made their way into the mass market.

The Future Laboratory is an agency which claims to show its corporate clients “what's new and what's next” and it's “one step up from the extreme”, according to Alf Tong, a writer and researcher whose job it is to make trends palatable to a wider audience. “We work by spotting a tiny kernel, linking things, spotting similarities and identifying a pattern,” he says. So for example, an examination into jewellery trends would involve a three pronged approach - research, a quantitative survey and interpretation. The research stage would involve consulting key experts in the field including anyone from editors of glossy magazines, retailers, designers, key jewellery brands, buyers at department stores, luxury forecasters and a luxury analyst in the finance world. Then to back up these findings, The Future Laboratory would interview between 1000 and 2000 jewellery lovers about what motivates the way they look at jewellery, all wrapping up with a detailed client report.

So are trends the key to profits? Trends can certainly present business opportunities. Yet, in the end, it's up to retailers, designers and buyers to use their discernment, and according to Tong, a healthy dose of cynicism, to see if they can do business based on a product inspired by a trend. Meanwhile, it's up to designers to keep doing what they do best - stay focussed at being creative and being themselves, in an effort to spark new trends through applying new ideas and new ways of thinking about jewellery.

But is it as straightforward as that? Tapping into key trends carefully while retaining a degree of individuality and a signature style is surely important too, when it comes to considering profit margins.

At Ortak, a wholesale, retail and online jewellery company based in Scotland, the jewellery design department takes trend forecasting very seriously indeed. Turnover at Ortak for 2005 was in excess of £6 million. For the past two years, Ortak has been the official jewellery supplier to the British Academy Television Awards and the Scottish BAFTA Awards.

“We always start the design process with our fashion predictions and mood boards,” says Clare Goodall, head of design. “For our trend forecasts we tend to look at what's happening in the textile industry for ideas on texture, pattern and colour and the cosmetic industry for colour palettes. Trends can be quite successfully predicted by the preceding season – instinct and experience can count for a lot. We usually use two or three different mood boards for each season,” she says.

Mood boards start by taking into account the political and social mood of the moment, says Goodall. “We collect images from the internet and, magazines, take photographs and collect interesting items like autumn leaves, pebbles and scrap metal. We put them all together on a large board with a working title. Everything in our contemporary collections will come from these initial findings and thoughts,” she says.

Given that Ortak jewellery is so heavily influenced by its Scottish roots, Goodall admits that it's all about striking a fine balance. “We have two categories in our collections – contemporary and traditional. Whilst we always follow our trend boards for the contemporary, the traditional tends to evolve more from customer demand. We try extremely hard to keep our traditional jewellery true to its roots and will not follow fashion if we believe the beauty of our Scottish jewellery will be compromised. Sometimes the two come together without conflict. An example is our new enamel Runic Dreams launch which incorporates traditional runic lettering with contemporary, trend inspired colours.”

In future issues of J-dex in this column, I will be taking an in depth look at pivotal trends on the jewellery stage. But for now, here is a taster of current influences to whet your appetite:

- The jewellery scene is currently being bombarded with a return to yellow gold. The warmth of rose gold is becoming more popular too. Cosmetics are becoming far more natural with a move away from fake tans, so warm coloured gemstones will be more prevalent in general this year. Green gemstones are still strong, but the hues are lighter, with softer translucent stones and olive stones dominating.

- Some trends that we'll continue seeing throughout 2006 don't present too much change from last year, such as layered necklaces and mixed gemstones in bright shades, mixed with pearls and gold.

- There's also an ongoing desire for individuality in jewellery and watches. “As consumers become increasingly confident in their own creativity and good taste, there will be more bespoke services outside the realms of tailoring and shoes,” predicts Alf Tong. Rotary's new Sabrina watches combine interchangeable crystal bezels while Theo Fennell's Pelham Anglo watches allow you to choose from a whole array of lilac sapphires, tanzanite, tourmalines and black or pave diamonds.

- This season there is an undeniable mood of dark glamour in the air. Stephen Webster's Femme Fatale pendant necklace with 12.9 carats of WebCut diamonds in platinum certainly fits into this noir category – as do Theo Fennell's Goth-like skull rings. Much of this trend is Victorian influenced. Apparently, Queen Victoria was obsessed with death – sparking trends for mourning rings which served as a way to remember people who had crossed to the other side.

- Stay tuned for jewels positioned in unexpected places. At the Golden Globes this January, Marcia Cross, of Desperate Housewives fame, attached art deco diamond clips to her dress. Similarly, Sharon Stone is said to be wearing a brooch near her waist in the forthcoming Basic Instinct 2 movie.

- A pared back chic in response to the glitz of recent seasons has resulted in a simplicity in the design of some jewellery and watches, such as Georg Jensen's oval watch.

- The jewellery world is being touched by Oriental mysticism. Black and white diamonds, rubies, jade and tourmalines mimic the colours and patterns from Japanese prints, embroidery and kimonos.

And finally, in one form or another, different takes on chains in various metals and fabrics will be evident in the coming months. Chains take the form of contrasting textures, colours and materials. Look out for Lara Bohinc's bracelets and earrings from her Knot collection